2026 Senate Overview: Democrats Making Progress
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
It’s been 20 years since one party flipped both the House and the Senate in the same cycle, but that’s exactly what Democrats are hoping to do in 2026.
While Democrats can win the House majority by winning Democratic-leaning and toss-up areas, the party must also win Republican areas in order to capture the Senate. With a combination of candidate recruitment and a national political environment focused on affordability that has resulted in Democratic overperformance in elections over the last year, Democrats have a distinct but still difficult path.
Holding their own competitive seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire is the necessary first step. Then Democrats need to win the open seat in North Carolina, find a way to finally defeat GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine and then win two of Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas, none of which are guaranteed or easy.
Flipping Senate seats in three states that voted for the other party’s presidential candidate just two years earlier looks like a daunting task on paper. But Democrats can take some comfort in 2010, when Republicans won Senate races in five states (Indiana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Illinois and Massachusetts) that voted for Barack Obama in 2008.
Democrats are simultaneously navigating competitive primaries in Michigan, Minnesota, Maine and Texas that feel like microcosms of the broader discussion about the future message and messengers of the party. But it remains to be…
