President News & Analysis

The Race that Never Stops Surprising

by Stuart Rothenberg October 12, 2012 · 1:00 PM EDT

Two weeks ago, Republicans were growing dispirited, even getting desperate.

Presidential nominee Mitt Romney was still on the defensive over his “47 percent” comment, and GOP consultants were worrying about what they acknowledged was some softening of Republican House and Senate poll numbers in swing states.…

Why’d Mitt Romney Take So Long to Move to the Middle?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 12, 2012 · 8:30 AM EDT

The surprise about Mitt Romney’s recent move to the middle isn’t that it occurred but that it took so long.

It has been standard political fare for presidential hopefuls to play to the party faithful during the fight for the nomination and then move to the middle in…

Race for the White House: Can Romney Mount a Comeback?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 5, 2012 · 1:00 PM EDT

Two respected polls, conducted by NBC News/Wall Street Journal and ABC News/Washington Post, recently showed former Gov. Mitt Romney (R) creeping back into the presidential race, but it was Wednesday’s debate that probably changed the trajectory of the contest.


Over the past few weeks, national polling…

Friday’s Numbers: Does Anybody Still Care?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 5, 2012 · 9:11 AM EDT

A few months ago, I expected this Friday to be a crucial day in the presidential race. After all, it would be the day when September's unemployment and new jobs numbers would be released, right in the heart of the contest.

But now, it's far from clear that…

Don’t Neglect the Twitter Effect on Debates

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 1, 2012 · 3:19 PM EDT

Amid all the pregame coverage of the first presidential debate, don’t neglect the Twitter effect. The winner and loser could be decided and the post-game narrative and media coverage could be set before the candidates even leave the stage.

Of course, Twitter launched before the 2008 campaign, but…

Race for the White House Shifts Toward the President

by Stuart Rothenberg September 28, 2012 · 1:58 PM EDT

We moved six states last week – all of them toward President Obama. Putting Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin into the “Lean Obama” category pushed the president to 278 electoral votes -- eight more than he needs to be re-elected.


Of course, those three states, and five…

Presidential Ratings Change: Advantage Obama

by Stuart Rothenberg September 21, 2012 · 4:52 PM EDT

We are moving six states in our presidential race ratings: Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin from Toss-up to Lean Obama, and Michigan, New Mexico and Pennsylvania to Solid Obama. 

Deteriorating state poll numbers for Mitt Romney suggest that these states have moved a few points toward the president, and…

In Politics, Expect the Unexpected

by Stuart Rothenberg September 21, 2012 · 3:00 PM EDT

I was on a panel at an event in the nation's capital Sept. 10. The subject was the elections, and another panelist and I discussed the race for the White House and the fight for control of Congress.

Toward the end of the event, someone in the audience…

Death of the Presidential Race Has Been Exaggerated

September 14, 2012 · 12:58 PM EDT

One week after the end of the Democratic convention it’s still hard to know whether the small Obama bounce in polling after the conventions reflects a permanent shift in the presidential race toward Obama’s benefit or is merely a momentary blip on the radar screen.

Some campaign watchers…

Both Parties Roll the Dice on Medicare Issue

by Stuart Rothenberg September 12, 2012 · 11:28 AM EDT

Democrats started licking their chops moments after Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney announced that he had selected Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan to be his running mate.

Whether the reaction came from the national party's House and Senate campaign committees, President Barack Obama's re-election campaign or individual Democratic campaigns…